By Nayara Güércio (Trilateral Research)
One thing that became impossible to ignore while working through the ATHENA FIMI case studies is just how adaptable information manipulation campaigns have become. They are not random acts of online chaos. They are strategic, patient, and often carefully tailored to the fears, tensions, and political realities of specific societies.
Across the case studies, we saw the same pattern repeating itself in different forms. Existing frustrations are amplified. Political divisions are pushed further apart. Emotional reactions are prioritised over factual debate. In many cases, the goal is not even to convince people of one single “truth”, but simply to create confusion, distrust, exhaustion, or cynicism.
Some campaigns relied on fake local news websites designed to look legitimate. Others used manipulated images, staged videos, coordinated social media activity, or influencers unknowingly spreading distorted narratives. There were operations targeting elections, protests, migration debates, public health crises, and geopolitical conflicts. What connects them is the attempt to shape how people interpret reality itself.
A particularly striking aspect of the research was seeing how often these campaigns recycle existing narratives instead of inventing completely new ones. Fear already exists. Distrust already exists. Polarisation already exists. FIMI actors frequently step into those fractures and widen them. Sometimes with sophisticated technological infrastructures. Sometimes with surprisingly cheap and simple tactics that still travel incredibly fast online.
Another important takeaway is that these campaigns are rarely isolated to the digital sphere. Online manipulation often interacts with real political tensions, protests, diplomatic disputes, or ongoing wars. The boundaries between information warfare, political influence, media ecosystems, and public emotion are becoming increasingly blurred.
The case studies also reinforced something important: countering FIMI cannot rely only on removing content or fact-checking after the damage is already done. Media literacy, transparency, cross-border collaboration, and public trust matter enormously. So does understanding the cultural and emotional dimensions of disinformation, not only the technological ones.
What these case studies ultimately show is that information manipulation is not a future problem. It is already shaping political conversations, public trust, and democratic processes across the world. Understanding how these campaigns operate is one of the first steps towards building resilience against them.
.
Posted by: Nayara Güércio (Trilateral Research)